卞建林  王 佳

( 中国政法大学, 北京 100088)

【摘 要】本文对西方当代司法证明科学领域几项突出的新发展作了介绍和评析: 运用贝叶斯定理对事实判定者的认知过程加以量化; 适用似真推理弥补传统形式逻辑推理的不足; 建立相应的似真推理平台———对话理论; 将信息科学引入证明过程。这些新发展突破了传统司法证明理论的瓶颈,为司法证明科学的发展注入了新的活力。

【关键词】司法证明; 贝叶斯定理; 似真证明; 人工智能

【中图分类号】D915.13

【文献标识码】A

【文章编号】1674- 1226( 2008) 02- 0129- 09 The New Developments of Western Judicial Proof.Bian Jianlin, Wang Jia. Institute of Procedure Law, China University of Political Science and Law, Professor, Beijing 100088

【Abstract】 This article gives an introduction to and comment on the latest developments of proof science, such as quantification of the cognizance process of fact finders using Bayesian Theory, and exploitation of Plausible Reasoning to make up for the loopholes of traditional reasoning and to establish a Plausible Reasoning platform by introducing the Dialogue Theory and IT Technology to Proof Process. All the developments have broken through the bottleneck of the traditional judicial proof theory and infused new vigor in its developments.

【Key Words】Judicial proof, Bayesian theory, Plausible reasoning, AI