范兆兴

【摘 要】 犯罪剖绘（criminal profiling）为分析（连续）犯罪行为型态的技术，藉由统计技术分析潜在犯罪者、被害者与犯罪现场迹证等三者之间相互联结可能性。然犯罪剖绘技术应用至“案件连结分析”，可根据犯罪现场所遗留迹证（含心理迹证），预测/推论犯罪者之人口背景特征，并将这些案件之犯罪现场迹证系统化处理，建构成数据库，有助警察侦办连续型犯罪。经由案件连结分析所得证据，能否成为法庭上论罪之依据，在英美国家必须通过“Frye 法则”与“Daubert 测试法则”检验，即是否已经通过科学性检验，或同一学术领域同侪认可验证过程。因此，后续研究可朝更精确统计分析方法迈进，以提升案件连结分析数据库对于预测未发现犯罪者之准确率及其法庭证据力。

【关键词】 犯罪剖绘；案件连结分析；正确性

【中图分类号】 D919.4

【文献标识码】 A

【文章编号】 1674-1226（2010）01-0039-14

Offender Profiling: Science or Art? Fan, Chao-Hsing. Graduate School of Crime Investigation , Central Police University.

【Abstract】 Offender profiling is the process of using available information about a crime, the victim and the crime scene to compose a psychological portrait of the unknown perpetrator of the crime. Offender profiling makes predictions about a person' s (demographic) and other characteristics from their crime scene behavior. Offender profiling relies upon the concept of case linkage, a process that aims to identify crimes exhibiting similar behavior,and therefore likely to have been committed by the same suspect. While peer-reviewed articles exploring this topic have steadily increased, the statistical sophistication of these studies is sorely lacking, with most including no statistics or formal analyses of data. Since expert evidence must pass the Frye test and the Daubert criteria to be admissible in court, these shortcomings in the studies pose some difficulty for the admission of evidence derived in this manner. Finally, this review provides suggestions for future research and recommendations to improve and streamline efforts in this field.

【Key Words】 Offender profiling，Case linkage，Accuracy