爱德华·K·程   李静静译 戴晓东校

（南京师范大学法学院，南京 401120）

【摘 要】优势证据标准通常被认为是 0.5 的绝对概率阈值，本文认为这种证据标准的绝对定性是错误的。文章并没有集中于绝对阈值，而是将优势证据标准重构为一种概率比，并阐明这样做是如何解决与证据概率理论相关的很多经典问题的。使用概率比去解决所谓的结合悖论，同时在贝叶斯视角下发展概率检验标准去进一步解释蓝色巴士问题或者其他与统计证据有关的难题。本文将证据的概率理论与最近倡导的溯因推理模型（最佳解释推理）相协调，修补了当前证据学界的争议裂痕。

【关键词】优势证明标准 ；概率比 ；贝叶斯

【中图分类号】D915.13

【文献标识码】A

【文章编号】1674-1226（2015）04-0309-18

Reconceptualizing the burden of proof. Edward K. Cheng1, Translated by Li Jingjing2. 1.Professor of Law, Vanderbilt Law School 2.Law School student of Nanjing Normal University (Procedure Law).

【Abstract】The preponderance standard is conventionally described as an absolute probability threshold of 0.5. This Essay argues that this absolute characterization of the burden of proof is wrong. Rather than focusing on an absolute threshold, the Essay reconceptualizes the preponderance standard as a probability ratio and shows how doing so eliminates many of the classical problems associated with probabilistic theories of evidence. Using probability ratios eliminates the so-called Conjunction Paradox, and developing the ratio tests under a Bayesian perspective further explains the Blue Bus problem and other puzzles surrounding statistical evidence. By harmonizing probabilistic theories of proof with recent critiques advocating for abductive models (inference to the best explanation), the Essay bridges a contentious rift in current evidence scholarship.

【Key Words】 The preponderance standard, Probability ratio, Bayesian