陆而启

（厦门大学法学院，厦门 361000）

【摘 要】聂树斌案复查再审的艰难并非理论偏误所致，但是为迎合司法实践提出所谓的聂树斌有罪和无罪“四六开”的概率论解释，反倒成为聂案各方各取所需的借口。通过“无证据”概念的引入，案件事实论证的成立与否可以转化为有、无证据的真相判断。对于所谓“证据确实充分”的已决案件，即便是因为真凶出现的偶然情形被认为的是错案，亦需要重新审视曾经的“证据”，这并非是以一个糟糕的论证代替另一个劣质的论证，而是要深入到糟糕的论证细节之中，将曾经的不确实、不充分的、非法获取需要排除乃至虚假和捏造的“旧证据”还原为“无证据”，同时运用“新证据”把“旧证据”证伪为“无证据”，才能跳脱所谓的既有罪又无罪的概率论陷阱。

【关键词】聂树斌案；概率论；对立论证；循环论证；语境论；无证据

【中图分类号】D915.13

【文献标识码】A

【文章编号】1674-1226（2017）04-0389-19

Introduction to the concept of no-evidence on individual cases: Taking the case of Nie Shubin as an example. Lu Erqi, Law School, Xiamen University, 361005

【Abstract】The difficulty in review and retrial of Shubin Nie Case does not result from theoretical errors,but is a probabilistic interpretation catering to judicial practice with a 4:6 guilt-to-innocence ratio of Nie, which in turn provides different parties to this case with excuses as they need. With the introduction of the concept of Noevidence, a factual argumentation of a case with or without success can be transformed into truth determination with or without evidence. A decided case with so-called “concrete and sufficient” evidence which turns out to be a erroneously-convicted case for the accidental appearance of the real perpetrator also make it necessary to reexamine the “former evidence”. Instead of replacing a bad argumentation with another same one, we should dig deeper into the details of those bad argumentations, reduce the former inaccurate, insufficient, illegally-obtained and inadmissible, or even false and fabricated “old evidences” into “no-evidence”, and falsify the old evidences into “noevidence” by new ones, so as to jump out of the so-called probability trap of being both guilty and not guilty.

【Key Words】 Case of Shubin NIE, Probability theory, Opposing argumentation, Circular reasoning,Contextual theory, No-evidence