唐玉富 沈运峰 

（浙江工商大学法学院，杭州 310018）

【摘 要】我国司法实践常采用“等同主义”方法将科学证据指示的概率默认为案件事实的概然性，这种做法其实并不符合概率的认识论原理。事实发现在本质上是基于证据所表达意义的推理，应当遵循意义先于推理的原则。科学证据中的概率与案件事实的概然性虽呈现相同的数学形式，却反映着不同的概率意义。概率可以表现为物理概率与认知概率。物理概率存在指称转换的难题，必须转换为认识概率方能揭示案件事实的概然性。认知概率基于外在路径与内在路径分为可靠的信念与可信的信念，可靠的信念基于对科学证据中理论陈述与观察陈述的同一性审查获取，可信的信念建构于法官对全案证据的最佳解释。

【关键词】科学证据；物理概率；认识概率；可靠的信念；可信的信念

【中图分类号】D915.13

【文献标识码】A

【文章编号】1674-1226（2023）03-0299-16

The factual reasoning structure of scientific evidence:from probability to belief.Tang Yufu,Shen Yunfeng,

Zhejiang Gongshang University,Hangzhou 310018.

【Abstract】Judges in China often adopts the"equivalence"approach to the probability presented by scientific evidence as the probability of the facts in the case.However,this judicial practice does not conform to the epistemological principle of probability.In essence,fact-finding is a kind of reasoning based on the meaning expressed by evidence and should follow the principle that meaning precedes reasoning.Although the probability in scientific evidence presents the same mathematical form as the probability of the facts in the case,they have different probabilistic meanings.Probability could be expressed as physical probability and cognitive probability.Physical probability has a difficult problem of referential transformation,which must be transformed into cognitive probability to reveal the probability of the facts of the case.Cognitive probability is divided into reliable belief and credible belief based on the external path and internal path.Reliable belief is obtained by the identity examination of theoretical statements and observation statements in scientific evidence,and credible belief is constructed on the judge's best interpretation of the all evidence in the case.

【Key Words】Scientific evidence;Physical probability;Cognitive probability;Reliable belief;Credible belief