谷 川

（北京市水务综合执法总队，北京 100036）

【摘 要】 受到预算约束和证明成本的影响，一些刑事案件在证明终结后，出现事实认定上的争议、不确定性，真伪不明或是虚假、错误等信息亦有可能夹带其中，这不仅增加了法官在认定事实与适用法律上的难度，也会导致案件错判风险上升。为了有效预防和降低刑事裁判的错案成本，经济学上的成本收益分析方法提供了具有可行性的解决方案。由错判概率、实际错判成本等因素结合而成的预期错判成本，是法官考量与权衡案件错判后果的一个重要指标。针对裁判过程中出现的不确定性事实，通过已有证据材料把握该事实存在的可能性，在此基础上，评估不同裁判方案可能产生的预期错判成本，进而选择成本较小的方案，以致达到减少社会损失，增进刑事司法裁判效益的目标。

【关键词】法律经济学；疑难案件；事实认定；错判概率；预期错判成本

【中图分类号】D915.13

【文献标识码】A

【文章编号】1674-1226（2023）01-0052-14

Economic analysis of law for fact-finding and judicial judgment of complicated cases. Gu Chuan, Beijing Water Resources and Affairs Law Enforcement Corps, Beijing 100036.

【Abstract】Affected by the budget constrains and the cost of proof, some criminal cases may have disputes and uncertainties in the determination of facts after the end of proof, and some unclear information may also be contained. This not only increases the difficulty of judges in finding the facts and applying the law, but also increases the risk of error judgments. In order to prevent misjudgment and reduce the cost thereof effectively , the cost-benefit analysis method in economics provides a feasible solution. The expected cost of misjudgment, which is composed of the probability of misjudgment and the actual misjudgment cost, is an important indicator for judges to consider the consequences of misjudgment. In view of the uncertain facts in the process of adjudication, the possibility of the existence of the facts is grasped through the existing evidence materials. On this basis, expected costs of misjudgment that may be generated by different adjudication schemes need to be evaluated, and the scheme with the smaller cost would be selected, so as to achieve the goal of reducing social losses and improving the efficiency of criminal justice adjudication.

【Key Words】Economic analysis of law; The cost-benefit method; Fact-finding; Misjudgment probability; The expected cost of misjudgment