—兼论笔迹鉴定意见“不确定性”的本质

李 冰 杨雅棋

（中国政法大学证据科学研究院，北京 100088）

【摘 要】利用似然率模型评价笔迹鉴定意见一直被法庭科学学界热议和研究，目前已经形成了初步的评价范式。然而，现行的几种基于似然率开发的评价笔迹鉴定意见的方法，在技术层面上仍存在缺陷。最高人民法院最新出台的《关于人民法院民事诉讼中委托鉴定审查工作若干问题的规定》明确排除了“不确定性”鉴定意见的证据资格，导致似然率模型评价方法在司法诉讼中难有适用空间。在双重困境之下，理性、辩证地评析似然率模型评价方法，明晰笔迹鉴定意见“不确定性”的本质，将这种评价方法合理定位并对传统笔迹鉴定方法的修正，不失为一条可行的路径。

【关键词】 笔迹鉴定意见；似然率；困境；不确定性

【中图分类号】D915.13

【文献标识码】A

【文章编号】1674-1226（2021）05-0630-12

A study on evaluation of handwriting appraisal opinions based on the likelihood ratio model——Also on the Nature of “Uncertainty” in Handwriting Appraisal Opinions. Li Bing, Key Laboratory of Evidence Science (China University of Political Science and Law), Institute of Evidence Law and Forensic Science, Collaborative Innovation Center of Judicial Civilization, Beijing, China, 100088; and Yang Yaqi, Institute of Evidence Law and Forensic Science, China University of Political Science and Law, Beijing, China, 100088.

【Abstract】The use of likelihood ratio to evaluate handwriting appraisal opinions has been widely discussed and studied in the forensic science field, and at present a preliminary paradigm of evaluation has been established. However, there are still some defects at the technical level in the current methods of evaluating handwriting appraisal opinions based on likelihood ratio. The newly issued provisions of the Supreme People’s Court of China on Several Issues Concerning the People’s Courts’ Examination of Entrusted Identification in Civil Proceedings clearly stipulates that the "uncertain" appraisal opinions do not have the qualification of evidence, resulting in difficulties in applying the evaluation method based on the likelihood ratio model in judicial proceedings. Under the double dilemma, it is a feasible solution to rationally and dialectically view the evaluation method of likelihood ratio model, clarify the nature of “uncertainty” of handwriting appraisal opinions and reasonably position this evaluation method as a revision of traditional handwriting appraisal methods.

【Key Words】Handwriting appraisal opinions; Likelihood ratio; Dilemma; Uncertainty