杨立云

（中南财经政法大学，武汉 430073）

【摘 要】无论中外都存在司法鉴定错误。司法鉴定错误，是鉴定意见因鉴定人非故意心理致与案件事实不相符合。司法鉴定认知的前提是各种知识、标准、法律规范。司法鉴定的认知结构是分层级的：特征识别、特征比较、个体识别、关联关系的判定、事件重建。对知识、标准、规范的理解不准，可能导致鉴定错误。概念、理论、论证的错误是特征识别错误之根本原因。溯因推理结论之多种可能性及归纳推理的逻辑“跳跃”，使特征比较有出错之可能。个体识别是从样本集中尽可能获得符合条件之唯一样本；种类识别的错误，个体识别的误用，以及个体独特性假设的缺陷，使得个体识别亦可能发生错误。关联关系判定以基于贝叶斯定理的似然率（LR）值为标准，但由于对难以量化之特征采用主观赋值，扩大了错误发生之空间。事件重建的结果之真假依赖于命题系统的“协调性”，但协调是结果为真的必要非充分条件。对各层级认知结构的深入探析，可改善司法鉴定的认知行为，减少司法鉴定错误。

【关键词】司法鉴定；认知；层级结构；错误；风险

【中图分类号】D915.13

【文献标识码】A

【文章编号】1674-1226（2021）04-0470-16

Cognitive structure and risk of errors in forensic science. Yang Liyun. Zhongnan University of Economics and Law,Wuhan 430073.

【Abstract】No matter in China and the other countries, forensic errors could take place. Forensic errors,which have been made unintentionally, are that the expert opinions formulated by forensic scientists not in line with the truth. The premises of cognition in forensic science include forensic knowledge, standards,and laws or regulations. Cognition in forensic science is a hierarchic structure: feature recognition, feature comparison, individualization, relevance judgment, and events reconstruction. Inappropriately understanding about the forensic knowledge, standards, law or rules could result in errors. Mistakes in the concepts, theories,and argumentation fundamentally cause the errors in the feature recognition. The errors in feature comparison could result from the multiple results of abductive reasoning and the logic “leap” in inductive reasoning.Mistakes in classification, the misuse of individualization, and the defects of the assumption of uniqueness,could lead to errors in individualization. Relevance judgment is standardized by the likelihood ratio (LR) stemmed from the Bayesian Theorem on the condition of quantifying features. When encountered the difficulty in quantifying features, the numbers are given subjectively by the experts. So the error space is enlarged. The truth of events reconstruction depends on the “coherence” of the propositions produced by reconstructing.However, the coherence of the propositions is not the sufficient but the necessary conditions of the truth.Exploring the hierarchic structure could improve the quality of cognition in forensic and reduce the forensic

errors.

【Key Words】 Forensic; Cognition; Hierarchic structure; Error; Risk