何家弘 吕宏庆

（中国人民大学法学院，北京 100872）

【摘 要】随着司法文明的进步和物证技术的发展，司法人员在认定案件事实时对口供等直接证据的依赖程度逐渐降低。在刑事诉讼中，司法人员越来越多地运用间接证据，而完全依据间接证据认定事实的案件数量也不断增加，因此，研究间接证据的证明方法具有重要的现实意义。间接证据的证明方法包括单个间接证据的演绎推理证明法和间接证据组合的同一认定证明法。二者都可以借助概率分析进行较为精细化的推论和验证。

【关键词】间接证据；证明方法；演绎推理；同一认定；概率分析

【中图分类号】D915.13

【文献标识码】A

【文章编号】1674-1226（2021）03-0261-13

The methods of proof with circumstantial evidence. He Jiahong, Lv Hongqing. Renmin University of China Law School, Beijing, 100872.

【Abstract】With the developments of judicial civilization and criminalistics, the judicial officers’ reliance on direct evidence has been reduced. In criminal proceedings, judicial officers would use more and more circumstantial evidence, and the number of of circumstantial cases has been increased. Therefore, it is important for judicial practice to research on the methods of proof with circumstantial evidence. The methods of proof with circumstantial evidence include the deduction method with single circumstantial evidence, and the individualization method with combination of circumstantial evidence. Both may have meticulous inference and verification with probability analysis.

【Key Words】Circumstantial evidence; Method of proof; Deduction; Individualization; Probability analysis