李 吟

（中国政法大学，北京 100088）

【摘 要】为了深入认识司法证明的性质并对其操作性规则进行更为合理的改革，西方法学理论家们对各种司法证明的概念化理论进行了研究。相对似真性理论，是在反思原子主义进路的司法证明概念化理论—概率论的基础上，基于解释性观念和整体主义提出的新的替代性理论。它源于古希腊时期的似真性理念，在近现代的自然科学和社会科学研究领域逐渐发展为关于真实的证成方案。相对似真性理论从相对性和似真性两个方面解释司法证明实体，并且明显地塑造着司法证明的结构设计、主体行动与价值追求。在我国以审判为中心的刑事诉讼制度改革中，似真性理论为刑事诉讼追求的“真实”提供了新的认知和判断标准，统一了对刑事诉讼证明标准的理解，强调了主体性因素在司法证明中贯穿始终的影响，缓和了司法证明多元价值目标间的张力，为我国的司法改革和证据制度建设提供了新的思考视角和理论支持。

【关键词】司法证明；概率论进路；相对似真性；证明标准

【中图分类号】D915.13

【文献标识码】A

【文章编号】1674-1226（2021）01-0054-19

The relative plausibility theory and its significance to China. Li Yin. Institute of Evidence Law and Forensic Science, China University of Political Science and Law, Beijing China 100088.

【Abstract】In order to gain better insights into the nature of judicial proof and to reform the operational rule of judicial proof more reasonably, western legal theorists have studied on various conceptualization theories of judicial proof. The relative plausibility theory is a new alternative theory which is based on ideas of explanation and holism,and on the ground of rethinking and criticizing the conceptualization theory of judicial proof on the atomistic path--probability theory. The relative plausibility theory originated from the idea of plausibility in the ancient Greek period, and gradually developed into a justification project of truth in modern natural and social science research fields. The theory explains the substance of judicial proof in terms of both relativity and plausibility. It shapes all the structural designs, actions of participants and the values we pursue in the judicial proof. In the trial-centered reform of China’s criminal procedure system, the relative plausibility theory sheds light on a new cognitive and judgmental standard for the "truth" pursued in criminal procedure, unifies the understanding of the standard of proof in criminal procedure, emphasizes the influence of subjective factors throughout judicial proof, and eases the tension between multiple value objectives of judicial proof. It provides a new perspective and theoretical support for China’s judicial reform and evidence system construction.

【Key Words】Judicial Proof; Probabilistic Path; Relative Plausibility; Standard of Proof