梁权赠

（北京市东城区人民检察院，100007）

【摘 要】数学在司法证明中的应用将有两个截然不同的走向 ：一方面，司法鉴定领域会不断涌现像 DNA 证据一样的统计概率证据,越来越多的科学证据将借助似然率的形式表征其证明力；另一方面，整合多项证据进行事实认定只能由人来完成，事实认定的人工智能化不可能实现。后者原因有事实认定过程复杂，数学推理难以模拟；数学推理并非司法证明思维的“母语”，而是一门需要翻译的“外语”；在数学推理中，“量”上的运算会模糊、混淆乃至掩盖“质”上的差别。

【关键词】数字证明；周文斌案；概率分析；统计概率证据

【中图分类号】D915.13

【文献标识码】A 【文章编号】1674-1226（2015）04-0475-10

Mathematics proof: beginning with the probability analysis of zhou wenbin case. Liang Quanzeng Beijing Dongcheng District People’s Procuratorate, Beijing 100007

【Abstract】The application of mathematics in judicial proof will have two very different trends: on one hand,there will be more and more statistical-probability evidence based on the empirical statistical data, which likes DNA evidence expressing their probative value through Likelihood Ratio. On the other hand, fact-finding cannot be achieved by mathematical reasoning alone, with the reasons as follows: the process of fact-finding is so complex that it cannot be simulated by mathematical reasoning; mathematical reasoning is not the “native language” of judicial proof but a “foreign language”, which needs to be translated for understanding; with respect to fact-finding, quantitative operations in mathematical reasoning sometimes would blur, confuse or even hide the difference in quality.

【Key Words】 Mathematics proof, Zhou wenbin case, Probability analysis, Statistical-probability evidence