〔美〕罗纳德·J·艾伦 著 汪诸豪 戴月 柴鹏 译

【摘 要】以贝叶斯分析为代表的概率论，是改变了人类生活之现代科学成就中至关重要的组成部 分。然而，它并非是铸就这种成就的唯一认知工具。法庭科学和法律以多种方式关联，但同时又有天 壤之别。法庭科学，如同其他任何科学一样，致力于将复杂性降至允许精心设计研究并精确解释的可 控水平。法律制度却无法享受这种奢华，且必须在有限时间内应对不可计数、变化多端的人类社会复 杂性。司法证明运用包括概率论在内的多种认知工具，以辅助似真推理，但归根结底，它不能被简化 为数字和数学公式。

【关键词】法庭科学；证据法学；概率论；似真推理

【中图分类号】D915.13

【文献标识码】A

【文章编号】1674-1226（2016）03-0366-20

The nature of juridical proof: probability as a tool in plausible reasoning. Ronald J. Allen, Translated by Wang Zhuhao, Dai Yue, Cai Peng, Zhang Baosheng

【Abstract】Probability theories such as Bayesian analysis have been critically important components in the success story of modern scientific achievements that has transformed the human life. However, they are not the only cognitive tools that have led to this success. Forensic science and law are related in many ways, but are at the same time critically different. Forensics, like science everywhere, strives to reduce complexity to manageable levels that permit well-designed studies and mathematical explanations. The legal system on the other hand lacks this luxury and must deal with all the complexity of the human condition with its infinite and ever changing varieties within very limited time.Juridical proof employs many cognitive tools including probability theories in the aid of plausible reasoning, but in the end it is NOT in a way that can be reduced to numbers and mathematic formulas.

【Key Words】 Forensic science, Evidence law, Probability theory, Plausible reasoning