—基于进化的视角

张植

(中国政法大学人文学院，北京 100088)

　　【摘 要】 法庭科学中的概率鉴识可分为专家鉴证和证据辨识，专家鉴证侧重于痕迹特征的同一性认定，它经历了从极小概率到似然比率的进化;证据辨识侧重于统计数据的检索与识别，它经历了从特征比对到阈值识别的进化。法庭科学中的统计支持包括统计内容和技术对法庭事实认定的支持，它经历了从基础概率信息到多元概率模型分析的进化。无论是概率鉴识还是统计支持，它们的应用都经历了从“专家标准”到“审查人标准”，从“演绎—律则”到“概率—解释”，从“知识—权力”到“认知—行为”的进化。

　　【关键词】 法庭科学; 概率鉴识; 统计支持; 概率科学; 科学进化

　　【中图分类号】D915.13

　　【文献标识码】A

　　【文章编号】1674-1226(2019)04-0455-17

　　Probability identification and statistical support in forensic science--based on evolutionary perspective. Zhang Zhi, College of Humanities of China University of Political Science and Law, Beijing, 100088.

　　【Abstract】 Probability identification recognition in forensic science can be divided into expert identification and evidence recognition. Expert identification focuses on identification of trace features, which has evolved from minimal probability to likelihood ratio. Evidence recognition focuses on retrieval and recognition of statistical data, which has evolved from feature comparison to threshold recognition. Statistical support in forensic science includes the applying of statistical content and technology in courts fact-finding, which has evolved from basic probability information to multivariate probability model analysis. Whether probability identification recognition or statistical support, both of them have evolved from “expert standards” to “examiner standards”, from “deduction-laws” to “probability-interpretation”, and from “knowledge-power” to “cognition-behavior” in practice.

　　【Key Words】Forensic science, Probability identification, Statistical support, Probability science, Scientific evolution