董锋¹　赵雅彬¹　罗亚平²　糜忠良³

(1. 中国人民公安大学刑事科学技术学院，北京 100038; 2. 中国人民公安大学研究生院，北京 100038; 3. 上海市现场物证重点实验室，上海 200080)

　　【摘 要】 似然比自提出以来，经过法庭科学家和统计学家的不断完善与创新，已经形成了大量理论成果。在将似然比的理论成果进行应用的过程中，国外法庭科学家又不断改进模型从而使得似然比植根于法庭科学的各个分支。似然比的引入使得法庭科学学科根基更加牢固，内涵更加丰富，也为法庭证据证明力的量化评估提供了途径。本文在综合国外大量关于似然比研究文献的过程中，着重分析了似然比在法化学、指纹、枪弹痕迹鉴定中的应用与研究，介绍了两种似然比的计算方法(特征变量型似然比、评分法似然比)以及似然比模型的几种评价方式(错误率、Tippett 图等)。以期推动国内关于似然比的理论与实证研究。

　　【关键词】 法庭科学;似然比;证据评估

　　【中图分类号】D915.13

　　【文献标识码】A

　　【文章编号】1674-1226(2019)03-0375-11

　　Progress made in study of likelihood ratio method in the field of forensic science. Dong Feng1, Zhao Yabin1, Luo Yaping2,* , Mi Zhongliang3 (1. School of Forensic Science, People’s Public Security University of China, Beijing 100038, China; 2. Graduate School, People’s Public Security University of China, Beijing 100038, China; 3. Shanghai Key Laboratory of Crime Scene Evidence, Shanghai Research Institute of Criminal Science and Technology, Shanghai 200083, China.)

　　【Abstract】 Since the likelihood ratio method was proposed, many theoretical achievements have been made through continuous efforts and innovations from collaborations between forensic scientists and statisticians. In application of the likelihood ratio method, foreign forensic scientists continue to improve the model to make it well-adapted to every sub-divisions of forensic science. The introduction of the likelihood ratio strengthened the foundation of forensic science, enriched its content, and provided an approach for testing the quantitative evaluation of the probative force of forensic evidence. This paper introduces two kinds of likelihood ratio calculation methods (the feature-based likelihood ratio method and score-based likelihood ratio) and several different ways to evaluate the performance of likelihood ratio models (such as error rate, Tippett plot, etc.), with special emphasis on the analysis of the application of likelihood ratio method in forensic chemistry, fingerprint identification and firearm identification on the basis of substantial related studies in other countries, aiming to promote China's theoretical and empirical studies on the likelihood ratio method.

　　【Key Words】Forensic science, Likelihood ratio, Evaluation of evidence